Agentic commerce is set to grow over the next five years from around 300 million users in 2026 to 1.3 billion users by 2031, according to new research from Juniper Research.

In a new report, the intelligence firm said growing retailer adoption, increased consumer familiarity with AI, and the development of dedicated payment infrastructure will drive almost 350 per cent growth in the market.

Rather than browsing websites or apps themselves, the report said shoppers will increasingly rely on AI agents to search for products, compare prices, and complete purchases on their behalf.

Juniper forecasts spending through agentic commerce will reach $1.5 trillion by 2030, although it believes traditional ecommerce checkouts will continue to play an important role alongside AI-powered purchasing for the foreseeable future.

The report said consumer trust is the biggest obstacle to widespread adoption, but this will change as AI becomes a normal part of everyday life.

The research also highlighted payments as a critical factor in determining how quickly the market will develop. Card networks have started to build infrastructure to support AI-powered transactions, with Mastercard, Visa, and Stripe identified as the leading providers of payment technology for agentic commerce.

However, Juniper warned retailers and payment providers against relying solely on card payments.

The report said that retailers introducing agentic shopping capabilities should ensure AI platforms support a broad range of payment methods to avoid creating friction during checkout.

Nick Maynard, vice president of research at Juniper Research, said consumer payment preferences would remain just as important in AI-powered commerce as they are in traditional ecommerce.

"Cards increasingly support agent payments through tokenisation, but card domination within agentic commerce is not in the market's best interests, given how important payment preferences are within ecommerce," he said. "If agentic commerce fails to support local payments, such as digital wallets and account-to-account payments, the market will limit its overall growth potential."

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