With non-essential stores now closed until December, IMRG is forecasting online retail sales growth in the range of 35 to 45 per cent during the Black Friday peak trading period from 23 to 30 November.

Online sales growth for the year so far is up 34.9 per cent, whereas for 2019 as a whole it was just 6.7 per cent, according to data from the IMRG and Capgemini index.

IMRG are tracks 320 retail sites to see when their festive season promotional campaigns go live, and this year there has been a trend for them launching earlier – with 4.3 per cent of them being live on 4 November, while for the same day in 2019 only 2.3 per cent were.

Andy Mulcahy, strategy and insight director at IMRG, said with non-essential stores closed, furlough extended and shoppers advised to get the bulk of their Christmas shopping done before December, “there is a possibility that could mean people buy spend more in the early weeks of November, pulling some of the volume away from the Black Friday week”.

Justin Opie, managing director at IMRG, added: “This does not feel like a temporary development; further evidence is no longer required that this is a permanent shift.

“Retailers, including those with stores, with strong online propositions, will continue to trade well – those without, for whom it’s not already too late, must adapt now if they are to survive.”

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